APPENDIX 1
MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL STRATEGY TABLES
Core Planning Assumptions
The table below sets out the core planning assumptions included in the MTFS projections:-
|
|
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
|
Pay inflation and pay related matters: |
|
|
|
|
|
- Provision for pay award |
3.50% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
- Employers pension contribution rate change |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
General inflation: |
|
|
|
|
|
- Inflation on social care third party payments |
2.00%* |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|
- Inflation on non pay expenditure |
0.75% - 2.00%* |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
|
- Inflation on waste PFI |
2.00%* |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
- Inflation on income |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|
- Inflation on parking income |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
- Inflation on penalty charge notices |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Resources: |
|
|
|
|
|
Change to Revenue Support Grant (RSG) |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
Business rates poundage inflation uplift |
10.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
Assumed council tax threshold increase |
1.99%** |
1.99% |
1.99% |
1.99% |
|
Adult Social Care Precept |
1.00%** |
1.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Council Tax Base |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
*Inflation costs above these assumptions are included in the revised estimates for service pressures
**For scenario planning, the midpoint view for the Council Tax threshold increase or the Adult Social Care Precept increase is assumed to increase by a further 1%
Summary of MTFS projections
The table below sets out the savings /budget gap taking into account the anticipated expenditure over the MTFS period and the funding resorces available based on the median view: -
|
|
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
|
£m |
£m |
£m |
£m |
|
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
199.853 |
246.642 |
258.508 |
265.612 |
|
Remove net one off short term funding and expenditure |
32.011 |
1.468 |
|
|
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
231.864 |
248.110 |
258.508 |
265.612 |
|
Pay and Inflation – Expenditure |
9.152 |
9.761 |
10.080 |
9.322 |
|
Inflation - Income |
-2.519 |
-2.605 |
-2.773 |
-2.798 |
|
Assumed Increase in government funding through grants |
-4.000 |
-2.000 |
-1.500 |
-1.500 |
|
New investment, demographic pressures in Adult Social Care and Adult Learning Disabilities |
5.400 |
5.500 |
5.500 |
5.500 |
|
Demographic pressures for Children’s disability, CiC, and Care Leavers |
2.300 |
1.250 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
|
Inflationary pressures in Adult Social Care and Adult Learning Disabilities |
6.500 |
|
|
|
|
Inflationary pressures for Children’s disability, CiC, and Care Leavers |
2.200 |
|
|
|
|
New investment in Housing - temporary and emergency accommodation |
2.400 |
|
|
|
|
Waste PFI inflation increase |
1.200 |
|
|
|
|
Energy costs inflationary increase |
1.050 |
0.650 |
|
|
|
Orbis partnership revised shares |
1.100 |
|
|
|
|
Housing Benefit net income reduction |
0.400 |
|
|
|
|
Service pressures for all other areas |
3.430 |
2.000 |
1.500 |
1.500 |
|
Commitments - impact of previous decisions including 2 year corporate priorities |
2.967 |
2.624 |
1.059 |
0.267 |
|
Pay award 2022/23 above 2% |
2.700 |
|
|
|
|
Change in reserves |
1.488 |
2.366 |
-0.274 |
-0.876 |
|
Budget Gap (Savings Requirement) |
-20.990 |
-9.148 |
-7.488 |
-5.118 |
|
Budget Requirement C/Fwd |
246.642 |
258.508 |
265.612 |
272.909 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Funded by: |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue Support Grant |
7.014 |
7.154 |
7.297 |
7.443 |
|
Locally retained Business Rates |
70.892 |
73.446 |
75.506 |
77.612 |
|
Collection Fund position |
-2.727 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Council Tax including Adult Social Care Precepts |
171.463 |
177.908 |
182.809 |
187.854 |
|
Total Funding |
246.642 |
258.508 |
265.612 |
272.909 |